What is the evolution of the batteries
E-mobility goes uphill: forecast for battery development
The consulting agency's annual report on the development of e-mobility in Germany Horvath & Partners has been offering a systematic summary and interpretation of the most important facts on the topic for years, exclusively from data analyzes. Predictions are made based on the data using exponential extrapolation. The consultants identify the decisive factors influencing the development of the electric car market, such as price, range, driving energy costs and charging options.
Optimistic about the numbers
The conclusion for 2020, ten years after the first mass-produced electric car (available as Mitsubishi i-MiEV, Citroën C-Zero and Peugeot iOn) is cautiously optimistic. Because this year growth has reached by far the greatest rate of increase - but still at a very low level.
The federal government's 2013 target of one million e-cars by 2020 was not even half achieved and has since been postponed to 2022: at the end of 2019, only 240,000 electric vehicles were registered in Germany, of which only around 137,000 were battery-electric. After all, at the end of 2020 the study sees around 400,000 cars that can be electrically powered, i.e. plug-in hybrids and cars with range extenders in addition to battery-powered ones.
The government's prestige target is expected in 2023
Assuming 56 percent growth for 2021, the government's prestige target of electrifying a full two percent of the vehicle population would not be reached until the beginning of 2023. According to the study, by 2030 it would be between 15 and 22 percent.
A 56 percent increase was, however, calculated conservatively in view of the increase in growth over the past four years. It could actually go faster, because battery prices have been falling for years, and there is no end in sight for the time being. So had Horvath & Partners when they predicted 250 euros per kilowatt hour for 2020 ten years ago. In fact, the kWh is now only around 100 euros, and the trend is falling.
Increase in energy density
The most important sticking point for the breakthrough of e-mobility, besides the price, is the range (fear of ness), which apparently prompts the manufacturers to increase the energy content of the storage, because consumption has not changed significantly over the period. The average range increased from 240 km in 2017 over 276 km in 2018 to 325 km in 2019. The increase in the energy density of the storage systems observed by the consultants also contributed to this. It increased from 87 Wh / kg to 134 Wh / kg between 2012 and 2019. In other words: the energy content of one kilowatt hour means a battery weight of no longer 11.49 kg, but only 7.46 kg.
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